A trip to Disney World is never truly completely without a rainy day in the parks.
Central Florida is no stranger to bad weather and frequent storms, and if you’re visiting during the summer and early fall, you may also want to prepare for hurricanes.
AccuWeather is predicting that 2022 will be another busy hurricane season with an above average number of named storms. The official start of the season will be June 1st, and is expected to last through November 30th.
Breaking Down the Predictions
The weather prediction site is calling for 16-20 named storms during the 2022 hurricane season. For comparison, last season we saw 21 named storms, including Hurricane Elsa. Back in 2020, there were a record-breaking 30 named storms! While the upcoming season is not predicted to be quite as busy as two years ago, 16-20 named storms is still considered an above-average hurricane season.
Per the AccuWeather forecast, the 16-20 anticipated storms will include 6-8 hurricanes, of which 3-5 will be major hurricanes classified as Category 3 or higher. Four to six named storms could directly impact the U.S. Last hurricane season, there were 7 hurricanes and 4 of those were considered major hurricanes. Eight of the named storms directly impacted the U.S.
The site also notes the potential for an early start to the June 1 “official” start to hurricane season. Storms have developed starting May in each of the previous six years, and even in April in 2017. We’ll soon find out if late spring trips will be affected by hurricane season!
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has now chimed in with its hurricane predictions for 2022. The NOAA has also predicted that there will be above-average hurricane activity this year, making this the 7th consecutive hurricane season that is above-average.
The NOAA forecasts that there is a likely range of 14-21 named storms. Of those 14-21 storms, 6-10 could become hurricanes, including potentially 3-6 major hurricanes (categories 3, 4, or 5). NOAA notes that the ranges are being shared with 70% confidence.
What’s causing this above-average season? Well, it’s a variety of factors, according to the NOAA. Among those factors are the ongoing La Nina (expected to continue through the hurricane season), sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea that are warmer than average, an enhanced west African monsoon, and “weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds.”
Storm Names for 2022
The 2022 storm names will be Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Ian, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Martin, Nicole, Owen, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tobias, Virginie and Walter.
With 16 storms or more potentially on the horizon, Hurricane Gaston is all but guaranteed! Storm names recycle every 6 years and names are removed if a storm causes significant death or destruction. There is also a set of spillover names used if there are more than 21 named storms in a hurricane season.
How Hurricane Season Could Affect Your WDW Trip
While Disney has sustained hurricane damage in the past, the frequency of hurricanes means that Disney World has precautionary measures in place for the weather event.
Last year, we saw some restaurants at the parks and resorts offering hurricane meal kits for guests. We have seen the parks close in the past for extreme weather events as well.
We’ll continue to monitor the hurricane season, so stick with AllEars to stay up to date on the latest hurricane season projections as they are released!
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Have you ever been in Disney World during a hurricane? Tell us about it below!