Hurricane season is something we like to keep an eye on, as the storms can affect the Orlando area.
We’ve already seen five named storms this season, with Elsa impacting Orlando as a tropical storm earlier this summer. Disney World is usually very prepared for incoming hurricanes, and will only shut down the parks if the weather is severe enough. We may be seeing more storms affecting Central Florida this year, as hurricane season is expected to have above-average activity.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says this year’s hurricane season will continue to be above-average, according to CNN.
They say the confidence of the forecaster has increased and the probability of an above-average season has gone from 60% to 65%. There is only a 10% probability of a below-average season and a 25% probability of an average season.
The most recent projections are calling for 15-21 named storms, while the initial seasonal outlook was calling for 13-20. This is including the 5 named storms we’ve already had this season. A named storm means it has winds 39 miles per hour or more.
CNN says the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting 7-10 hurricanes (meaning storms with winds 74 miles per hour or more), when originally it called for 6-10. Of the predicted hurricanes, 3-5 are supposed to be major, meaning they will be a Category 3, 4, or 5 with winds 111 miles per hour or more. This remains the same from the previous forecast.
The Atlantic hurricane season is between June 1st and November 30th, peaking in August, September, and October.
La Niña could play a part in the prediction for an above average hurricane season. The phenomenon making eastern Pacific waters cooler is expected to contribute to the ideal breading ground for hurricanes in the Atlantic.
Although the next few months are predicted to be active, forecasters aren’t expecting this season to be as active as 2020. Sea surface temperatures are not supposed to be as warm this year compared to last.