Why Disney World’s Crowds Are Entirely Predictable

Since the 2020 park closures, a lot has changed in Disney World.

For a while, times of year that were traditionally very crowded were empty –- and then traditionally empty times were crowded. Now, it seems like the crowds never end! These new patterns might seem like they came out of nowhere but that’s not totally the case and we’ve got the receipts.

There have been times in 2021 and 2022 when it felt like crowd levels were completely unpredictable in Disney World, and with what seems like an inconsistent few years, how can we be confident in predicting the crowds to come? Well, Disney’s current crowd levels might be more predictable than you think.

Pent-up Demand

You’ve probably heard the buzzword “pent-up demand” if you’ve been following the travel scene over the past few years. With the entire world unable and unwilling to travel for much of 2020, a lot of people were dreaming of vacations – and now, they’re taking them.

Let’s take a look at where this demand is coming from.

Travel Restrictions

2020 introduced the months-long closure of Disney World followed by state-by-state and international COVID-19 travel restrictions, limited flights, and more travel obstacles that prevented typical visits to Disney World.

With many travel restrictions having been lifted by now, it’s not unexpected that travel demand has increased. Some international travel restrictions remain in place, but we have noticed an increase in overseas visitors in Disney World recently, and while this trend may not be permanent, it could remain the norm for some time.

Click here for a Complete List of U.S. Travel Restrictions and Advisories Related to COVID-19 Omicron Strain

Health Concerns

We may still be experiencing the rise and fall (and rise again) of COVID-19, but perhaps due to the relaxing of masking requirements or just overall pandemic fatigue, we’re seeing huge crowds in Disney World now.

After Disney World lifted masking and social distancing requirements for vaccinated visitors throughout 2021 and 2022, crowds have seemingly remained steady in the parks, with even historically less busy months like August remaining crowded.

Here are all the MAJOR changes in Disney World in 2022!

Desire to Travel vs. Cost of Travel

One factor that has always affected Disney World crowd levels is the desire to travel versus the cost of travel. Disney World’s demand has always seen steady growth (barring external events like COVID-19 or 9/11). Now, due to the other factors laid out here, that demand has increased significantly –- enough to outweigh the also-increased cost of travel.

Some people have also had over two years to save for a vacation (due to COVID-19 lockdowns) and money isn’t a huge concern. For these vacationers, it’s time to go “all out” because it’s been over two years since they had a vacation — which means they may also have a bigger budget than usual.

Disney World Price Increases

We’ve seen price increases across the board over the past two years, including higher ticket prices and hotel rates, as well as increases on food, merchandise, and more. Perk removals have also impacted Disney World visitors, with the complimentary airport shuttle known as Magical Express discontinued, along with other Disney World hotel perks (like free MagicBands) now gone.

Also note that Disney World ticket prices range from $109 to $159 (depending on the day) for standard tickets, and the higher the ticket price, the increased likelihood of crowds that date.

Sneaky ticket price increase revealed for 2023 Disney World trips

Other Travel Price Increases

If you’ve traveled recently, you may have encountered higher airfare, gas, rental cars, hotel rooms, and more. It’s no secret that travel costs have increased significantly since the onset of COVID-19. Still, we’re seeing that a large percentage of people still opted to travel this summer, with many Americans expecting to spend more on their vacation this summer.

Desire versus the cost of travel will likely remain the biggest factor in why Disney World is crowded or not. As has been the case historically, Disney’s control over this is on the cost side. Even as the external factors mellow out, it’s possible that demand will continue to drive costs upward. In fact, people are spending 40% more in Disney World now, which proves that the desire to visit Disney World is greater than cost concerns.

As demand continues to rise, so will costs, and at this moment in time these high prices do not seem to be making a dent in visiting crowds.

Why people are still traveling despite historically high prices.

Hotel and Park Pass Availability

These factors could certainly give us a wider understanding of crowd levels and those to come, but what about more specific predictors? For one, looking at hotel and Disney Park Pass availability leading up to your trip can give you a good idea of what crowds to expect.

Disney Park Pass

Disney Park Passes are not going away anytime soon, as Disney has noted that the reservation system helps them control crowd levels AND we’ve already seen Disney extend reservations into 2024. Park Passes give Disney total control over park capacity, and you can see how crowded (or not) some future dates may be based on which parks remain available.

Another way to predict crowds is to look at blockout dates for Annual Passholders. Blockout dates typically take place on dates that are expected to be busy in the parks, and you can safely assume that those dates are likely to be more crowded than average. If you want to avoid a crowded time period, check out the Annual Passholder blockout calendar and avoid those dates.

Check out the Annual Pass blockout dates here!

Hotel Availability

Although all Disney World hotel rooms are now open (that’s over 36,000 rooms!), some of the hotels are still not booking at full capacity. One way to predict crowds is to look for high numbers of sold out hotels and also higher hotel prices.

If plenty of hotel options exist, you can probably expect to find low to moderate crowds, but if everything is sold out and Park Passes have also begun selling out, it’s likely that you’re looking at a crowded visit.

BEWARE: The crowds in Disney World are no joke today.

School Patterns

As has always been the case, school schedules can undoubtedly be a predictor of crowds in Disney World, as many families plan their Disney trips around the kids’ schedules.

Holidays/Long Weekends

Summer and spring break schedules vary from school to school, but Spring Break crowds in Disney World usually last about a month and a half, beginning around the end of March and ending in mid-May. It’s pretty self-explanatory — lots of people like to visit Disney World for Spring Break!

Also, three-day weekends with holidays such as Labor Day, President’s Day, and Memorial Day can generally be expected to be busy. You can actually safely predict crowds on pretty much any date that most schools are not open.

Remote Learning

However, COVID-19 and remote learning did change some of these school patterns. Remote learning already existed before COVID, but many families started trying it after the onset of the pandemic, and as a result, there are lots of students who aren’t locked into a school schedule anymore.

As remote learning options expand, crowds could be more of a year-round feature, so don’t rely solely on the average school schedule to avoid crowds.

The WORST times to visit Disney World.

Other Factors

DVC Point Expiration

Disney Vacation Club (DVC) point expiration is a little-known factor that drove Disney World crowds in early 2022. During the pandemic, Disney extended point expiration dates for DVC Members, and early 2022 became the time period that many members were seeing their points begin expiring. (Points are what DVC Members use to book Disney World hotels.)

In order to avoid missing out on points, we saw an increase in DVC visitors in Disney World, which also impacted certain DVC hotels. This is probably not going to be a major future trend but it can be a possibility, especially if you’re a DVC Member.

Read more about Disney Vacation Club here.

50th Anniversary Celebration

Disney World has been celebrating its 50th anniversary since October of 2021, and this 18-month celebration will last until May 2023. We saw a surge in Disney World visitors at the beginning of the celebration and we also expect to see another surge toward the end of the celebration.

If you want to see the 50th anniversary celebrations but don’t want to deal with crowds, we recommend visiting sometime before April 2023.

Learn more about Disney World’s 50th anniversary celebration here.

Other Events

If you want to avoid crowds at other times, we highly recommend checking out Disney’s and Orlando’s event calendar before scheduling your visit. Things like local sports events and runDisney race weekends can lead to significant increases in crowds.

So, perhaps Disney World crowds aren’t all that unpredictable after all. Hopefully, this post has shed some light on the patterns we’ve been seeing and give you an idea of what to look for going forward. Crowds are the norm in Disney World and the days of catching low wait times and empty lands might be gone for now, but you can at least avoid those MAJOR crowd days by keeping an eye out for some of the above warning signs. 

Keep following AllEars for more Disney World news and updates!

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How do you avoid crowds in Disney World? Tell us in the comments!

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