Analysts Predict Iger’s Successor, Peltz’s Board Push, and More for 2024

We could be headed for quite the shake-ups in 2024, especially in the entertainment industry.

While we’re all eagerly awaiting what’s to come for 2024 and counting down the new releases to be streamed from the comfort of our home screens, several predictions are being made about Disney, NBCUniversal, the future of streaming, and more and we’re breaking a few of those down!

Recently, CNBC had the opportunity to ask 13 past and current executives among the world’s biggest media and entertainment companies their opinions on streaming predictions they could see become reality for 2024.

They’ve done this in the past with several successes as to these predictions like Bob Iger extending his contract and Christine McCarthy stepping down as Disney’s chief financial officer. However, they’ve also seen a few of the predictions not come to fruition as was the case for a few executives who had hoped the media industry would bounce back from recession, along with predictions that Netflix would merge with another company, and ideas that Apple would ban TikTok.

So what kinds of predictions were forecasted for 2024? Let’s dive into a few of these involving Disney, NBCUniversal, and a few other popular streaming services a bit!

Comcast will spin off NBCUniversal and merge with Warner Bros. Discovery

We’re coming up on the second anniversary of the merger between Discovery and WarnerMedia as WarnerBros. Discovery and this date is important for reasons relating to the Reverse Morris Trust tax. Here’s the meat and potatoes of what this will boil down to; Warner Bros. Discovery will be able to do another significant deal (similar to this merger) after two years have passed since the close of Discovery and WarnerMedia.

When the executives with these predictions were asked about these a bit further they gave a few varying opinions. One exec eyed NBCUniversal as the company they pinned most likely to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery. This executive also predicted Comcast’s CEO Brian Roberts would spin off NBCUniversal to make room for this new company to trade separately however, Comcast (and ultimately Roberts) would keep controlling stakes in the ownership of whatever new entity is formed. However, another exec believes Comcast will keep its theme parks business but sell the rest of the company in exchange for WarnerBros. Discovery’s common shares. Comcast will then receive a premium for what remains of NBCUniversal if Roberts is willing to forego his voting shares. This prediction further outlines that Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav would stay to run the newly formed entity with NBCUniversal film chief Donna Langley staying on to operate the expanded studio side.

Bob Iger won’t be going anywhere as Disney CEO

It’s no secret that Disney CEO Bob Iger renewed his contract through 2026 earlier this year, but Iger has been vocal about plans to walk away from Disney forever when his contract is finished. Although that has been the idea at least verbally slated to the public, Iger has also extended his contract as CEO avoiding retirement five times already. If you’re getting a case of deja-vu you should be feeling it because he also said the same thing when he left The Walt Disney Company the last time in 2021 in the hands of Bob Chapek as his successor.

One of the executives predicted this again stating, “fool me five times, shame on me.” Throughout the shakeups since Iger’s last attempt at departure, Disney has uncovered several strategic problems that don’t seem to have easy answers, like figuring out how ESPN’s business fits in a direct-to-consumer world and closing out its legacy TV cable networks in favor of streaming. These are problems that demand a leader who can tackle these head-on and understand the industry. It appears that Disney has realized they need Bob Iger (at least the board seems to think so) and won’t be so willing to allow him to walk away until more of these issues are ironed out.

Nelson Peltz and Jay Rasulo will win seats on the Disney Board

Nelson Peltz has been very vocal recently about his dissatisfaction with how The Walt Disney Company has been choosing to handle its issues and he’s ready to do something about it.

Peltz along with former Disney CFO Jay Rasulo have made bids to join Disney’s board and are now predicted to win those seats they’ve been eyeing so feverishly. Rasulo has been critical of Disney’s failed succession planning as a partial reason for his intentions to run for Disney’s board of directors. If Peltz and Rasulo are voted into the board, this could be the one thing that would prevent Iger from extending his contract another round beyond the current planned 2026 departure.

Iger could name Dana Walden as Disney CEO successor

Assuming this last prediction does actually pan out a new successor would have to be named and the executives asked for predictions on who this would be pointed to Dana Walden. Bog Iger has planned to name a successor in early 2025 giving that person around 20 months to prepare to step into the CEO role. If this turns out to be the case, we could see an announcement further about this in late 2024. Co-chairman of Disney Entertainment Dana Walden is predicted to get the green light on this new position. When a successor is named and takes on the role, Iger would then (again) move to a chairman role just as we saw him do when Bob Chapek stepped up in 2020.

Interestingly though, a second person threw out a different name — Andrew Wilson, CEO of Electronic Arts. While this may feel like a true curveball to add to the mix, the same executive who threw out this prediction also correctly predicted Iger would return as Disney CEO in 2022. To round out another point on why we should hold clout to their opinion, this executive also predicted last year that Chris Licht wouldn’t last through the year as CNN’s CEO and McCarthy would depart as Disney’s CFO.

Disney will buy Candle Media and Kevin Mayer will position himself as Iger’s successor

Yeah, this new “will he, won’t he” with Bob Iger ending his contract really seems to be bringing out lots of opinions so we’re throwing out another one to you for good measure. This exec predicted Disney would purchase the current privately held Candle Media to acquire Moonbug Entertainment. Why is that name relevant at all? Well, you may not be familiar with their parent company name but they’re the owner of CoComelon. Should this happen, it’s predicted that Disney would then attempt to sell the remaining Candle Media assets at fire-sale prices.

It’s relevant to note that Candle Media is currently co-run by two former Disney executives, Kevin Mayer and Tom Staggs. This prediction further outlines that Mayer would return to Disney in something like a senior operating role allowing him to position himself as Iger’s top successor candidate with Staggs leaving the company.

NBA Rights to be divided between Disney, Warner Bros. Discovery, and Apple

2024 and what it brings for the NBA may turn out to be one of the most closely-watched stories of the year. This will be the year that the National Basketball Association decides what to do with its media rights. It’s been reported in the past that the NBA ideally would like to see 3 media partners with varying packages of games.

Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery are the most likely of the 3 to make a play for these game packages. Both companies are looking to maintain relationships with the NBA, but both companies have also stressed they intend to be financially disciplined. As for a third option, the league is also eyeing another robust streaming service like Apple however, another executive has also predicted that Apple may not make a bid for the opportunity and could see NBCUniversal swooping in to fill that spot.

Warner Bros. Discovery’s Max, Netflix, and Disney will band together for streaming bundle

Could we see a day when streaming services conform to a robust bundle mocking a traditional cable TV service offering? It’s possible says a few executives. Although the inception of streaming services hasn’t spawned something resembling this yet, it doesn’t mean that it’s not the future of where this is headed. In order for this to happen, a dominant aggregator would need to emerge and several media companies would need to be in full agreement with each other to bundle.

One executive believes that 2024 will be the year companies FINALLY get serious about attempting the first mass streaming bundle with companies like Disney bringing its big  3 on board (Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+) along with Max and Netflix offering a collective service at a discount similar to a packaged cable TV offering.

Another executive expanded on that idea noting that such a discount will probably need a core distributor to head the bundle idea. Amazon was the initial spearhead of this idea along with companies like Paramount+ and Warner Bros. Discovery’s Max joining a bundled option included with Amazon offers.

2024 movies won’t see billions at the box office

For the first time in more than 15 years, executives are predicting that this will be the year theatrical releases will see a slowdown.  In this prediction, no movie released in 2024 will top $1 billion at the theaters.

While this executive holds fast to this prediction, they’ve pointed out that Universal’s Despicable Me 4 has the best chance at coming the closest to hitting the mark.

What do you think could be in store for the future of movies, television, Disney, and streaming services for 2024? Be sure to stay tuned with us at AllEars.net for the latest in news and more!

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