Why Disney+ Wouldn’t Have Done As Well if It Came Out Today

Disney+ launched back in November of 2019 and has gone on to gain MILLIONS of subscribers in under 2 years!

Disney, Star Wars, Marvel, and Pixar fans have all flocked to the service for new, compelling content from The Mandalorian to WandaVision. But, would Disney+ have been as successful if it launched today as opposed to when it launched in 2019? We’re sharing our thoughts on that right here with you.

Why Disney+ Was Particularly Successful Due to the Timing of Its Launch

When Disney+ launched on November 12th, 2019, no one could have guessed the state the world would be in just months later. In November of 2019, we didn’t really have a lot of experience with stay-at-home orders, toilet paper shortages weren’t a concern, and we likely watched most new films in theaters.

But, just a few months later the COVID-19 pandemic became a serious concern in the United States. In March, Disneyland and Disney World closed, Disneyland Paris closed, and Disney Cruise Line suspended some of its departures. Just before that, Shanghai Disneyland and Tokyo Disneyland had also closed.

Click here to see everything that’s happened since the park closures.

But, the pandemic didn’t just impact Disney’s parks. Many (if not most or all) other theme parks around the world closed their doors at some point during 2020 due to the pandemic. Restaurants also closed or transitioned to only take-out/delivery services for a while. Movie theaters closed. Even things like playgrounds were generally closed to prevent the spread of the virus.

Many schools transitioned to virtual or some kind of hybrid learning model. Non-essential stores closed temporarily at points. Stay-at-home orders were issued in many counties, causing residents to, well, stay at home except for essential travel.

Individuals exposed to the virus also had to follow certain quarantine requirements. Many gyms were closed for a period of time.

Essentially, nearly every form of entertainment or activity that people typically did/participated in for enjoyment was restricted or otherwise impacted in some way.

With all of these forms of entertainment closed and people generally required to remain at home in order to prevent the spread of the virus, many people likely turned to activities they could enjoy in their houses. And guess what was there to greet them when they turned on their TVs? Disney+.

By being essentially forced to rely on entertainment products you could enjoy from your home, Disney+ not only survived, it thrived.

If you wanted to watch new movies, new series, etc. — Disney+ was the place to go (along with other at-home streaming services). Throughout 2020 Disney released a number of new projects directly to the streaming platform for free (or an additional cost, like with Mulan).

Just in April of 2020 alone, fans could start streaming a new Disneynature film, more Star Wars: The Clone Wars episodes, more episodes of Be Our Chef, more episodes from One Day at Disney, and even the Pixar movie Onward, after it was only able to play in theaters for a limited time prior to the COVID shutdowns.

And Disney is not unaware of the perfect timing of Disney+’s release. Disney’s Executive Chairman, Bob Iger called Disney+ a “beacon of hope” and specifically recognized how “timing is everything.”

In a recent interview, Iger noted how Disney had been intent on launching their direct-to-consumer service and said, “thank goodness we did that when we did it.” Iger shared that when Disney had to shut everything down due to the pandemic, they at least had Disney+.

Iger said that Disney was fortunate to have gone into the streaming business when they did because when COVID hit, they at least “had something to turn to.” Iger also noted that Disney+ “kept the company vibrant because there was a beacon of hope.”

Disney+’s success was also critical to the company’s stock values. Iger noted that Disney+ has had a “profound impact on the perception of the company at Wall Street because the stock has risen dramatically in the process.” “We plummeted when COVID hit because of the shutdown, and rebounded quickly because we continued to grow Disney plus,” Iger shared.

Disney+ hit major subscriber goals early in its launch and continued to do so for quite some time. It recently, however, fell short of a new level of expected subscribers.

Despite the fact that Disney+ isn’t even expected to become profitable until fiscal year 2024, it certainly seems to be considered a success in Disney’s eyes. Disney continues to (and plans to continue to) invest BILLIONS of dollars in the service. And we’ve seen new releases become available on Disney+ including major films like Black Widow, which will be available through Premier Access on the same day it is released in theaters.

What would have happened if we went into an alternate reality and Disney+ launched right now (June of 2021) rather than back in 2019? Would it have been as instantly successful?

What Would Have Happened If Disney+ Launched Today?

The situation with COVID-19 in the U.S. looks very different than it did last year. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as of June 12th, about 64.1% of adults in the US have at least 1 COVID-19 vaccine shot. The COVID-19 vaccine is also available to a larger number of younger individuals now. New cases continue to be reported of individuals being affected by COVID-19, but still, we’re in a very different position than where we were just a few months ago.

As a result, many things have reopened or started to reopen. In many states and counties, COVID-19 restrictions have been eased up or entirely lifted. Many restaurants have reopened once again for full service indoors and/or outdoors. Many stores have reopened. Some schools have returned or plan to return to in-person learning. Theme parks, including Walt Disney World and Disneyland, have reopened. And many movie theaters have reopened as well.

Many individuals have started to travel again or are planning to travel soon. According to a table on the Visit Florida website using data from Longwoods International, as of May 12th, 2021 about 89% of survey respondents indicated that they plan to travel in the next 6 months. This survey specifically tracks the effects of COVID-19 on domestic travelers.

Basically, people can once again return to doing many of the things they previously did.

But, not all is back to “normal.” Capacity continues to be limited in some places and some locations have simply changed how they are now operating as compared to how they operated prior to the pandemic. You may find buffets have transitioned to family-service meals (like several restaurants in Disney World have) or other changes.

All in all, however, things are much more open and available for people to enjoy than they were 1 year ago. Thus, that critical need for entertainment at home may not be as strong anymore. Let’s just say we’re no longer in a time of binge watching Disney+ all day long while baking bread and making puzzles!

That doesn’t mean people won’t continue to stream lots of shows and movies at home though. For some, the pandemic may have fundamentally changed how they look at watching new movies. It may cause a significant shift in consumer behavior and many may now simply prefer to stay at home and pay the $30 to stream the latest movies with Premier Access or whatever other methods they use.

Just because more things are opening up doesn’t mean Disney+ won’t continue to be successful.  Over the past few months, Disney+ has developed a substantial base of subscribers. Many of these individuals will likely be encouraged to keep their subscriptions because of ALL the new content Disney is set to release on its streaming service in the future, including new Star Wars series, new Marvel shows, and much more.

But, there is a lot of competition out there right now. When Disney+ started, there were already some popular streaming services available like Netflix, Amazon Prime, etc. But now there are even more streaming services available like HBO Max and Peacock. And more streaming services have unique offerings regarding new movie releases, including offerings like Disney+ that allow you to watch new movies on your devices on the same day they’re released in theaters.

Consumers can only subscribe to so many streaming services before they blow their budgets, at which point they might have to pick and choose which ones they want to keep and which ones they want to cancel.

Not to mention Disney+ recently became more expensive. And we expect more price increases will come as greater amounts of new, valuable content are released on the service.

Ultimately, things are not the same now as they were a year ago (just months after Disney+ launched). If Disney+ were to have launched right now, would it benefit from the same level of success it garnered last year during those months in the pandemic when everyone was quite literally stuck at home? It’s likely the situation with Disney+ would be different if it had launched now as opposed to when it did back in 2019. But, that doesn’t mean that it wouldn’t have been successful or that it won’t continue to be successful now.

How will Disney+’s subscriber numbers, content value, pricing, and more continue to develop in the next few months? That’s something Disney hasn’t shared all of the details about just yet. But we’ll be on the lookout for more information and let you know what we find.

Are you a Disney+ subscriber? Do you feel like you watch it more or less now as compared to a year ago? Tell us in the comments!

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