Major Forecaster Just Predicted a SURPRISING Hurricane Season

While it may feel like 2026 has only just begun, the second half of the year – and the Atlantic Hurricane Season – are nearly here. As far as the latter goes, the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project Team is projecting a slightly below-average hurricane season.

In its first seasonal outlook, released in April, the school is forecasting 13 storms for the season, six of which are predicted to become hurricanes, with a pair reaching Category 3 or stronger, in its first outlook for 2026 released Thursday. If that prediction proves true, it would be slightly below the 30-year average tally for both storms and hurricanes, usually 14 and seven, respectively. It’s also slightly below the tally of 13 storms from 2025, which featured five hurricanes, four of which hit Cat 3-plus.

Specific predictions from Colorado State University’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling, and Software Team include 13 named storms over 55 storm days, down from the 1991-2020 average of 14.4 and 69.4, respectively. Six of those storms are predicted to turn into hurricanes (a pair of which are predicted to turn into major hurricanes), down from the average 7.2 and 3.2, respectively. The 20 total hurricane days and five major hurricane days are also down from 27 and 7.4 days, respectively.

According to CSU, the below-normal activity level is due to El Niño activity. As they wrote in a press release, “Current weak La Niña conditions are likely to transition to El Niño in the next few months, with the potential for a moderate/strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal, but slightly cooler than normal in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. We anticipate El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving increased levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. We are forecasting a below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”

Delián Colón-Burgos, who co-authored the forecast, told CBS News, “We always recommend, to coastal residents, to prepare the same way for every season. Putting this out there in April gets people thinking about what’s coming in the next couple of months.”

The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially runs from June 1st through November 30th, and generally peaks between August and October. The CSU prediction model will be updated and evolve as the season begins. Stay tuned to AllEars for more coverage as the forecast evolves.

Were Some of These 2026 Storm Names Inspired By Disney Characters?

Are you heading to Florida during the 2026 hurricane season? Let us know in the comments below.