Analysts Predict Florida's Health Crisis Could Peak Earlier Than Originally Thought

With the current global health crisis, a big question has been analyzing and predicting when the peak of cases will happen across the states.

With the Disney parks closed, many have looked to Florida to see when the state’s curve would flatten to potentially look for dates when the parks would open. And now, new research has come out that seems to indicate this peak time for Florida may be sooner than we originally thought.

Analysts from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine have been studying trends across the state and, according to the Orlando Sentinel, they have predicted that the peak date for Florida cases could be April 21st.

IMHE projection chart for ICU beds needed ©Orlando Sentinel

According to the Orlando Sentinel, the data indicates that Florida could see a median of 242 deaths and need more than 2,000 ventilators and about 2,500 ICU beds, which is 800 beds shy of what is available across the state right now.

IMHE projections for deaths per day ©Orlando Sentinel

The IMHE says that this data is based on observed death rates and take into consideration preventative measures like social distancing implemented at the state level. Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings said on Monday that Florida hospitals are, “…working on a predictive model that will be used to validate what has been done by this national organization.”

Now, this data could change, and we could see the peak a little sooner or later than the analysts have predicted. We will continue to monitor the situation, and keep you updated as more information comes in.