How the Oscars Could Change the Future of the Movie-Going Experience

The 93rd Academy Awards ceremony will be held tonight, Sunday, April 25th.

The Oscars have historically served as an advertisement for going to the movie theater. But as we head into this year’s ceremony, both the Academy Awards and the future of movie-going itself face an uncertain future.

CNN recently provided a closer look at the major factors contributing to the uncertain future of the movie-going experience. First, in recent years, the most popular box-office hits have rarely taken the top prize for Best Picture at the Academy Awards. This has led to less familiarity with general audiences than in years past.

In addition, 2020 saw streaming emerge as the primary way for studios to distribute their films. This means it’s likely that some of the biggest winners at the Academy Awards, which celebrates going to the movies, will be films that have never had a theatrical release. In fact, five of the eight movies nominated for Best Picture premiered via streaming. Disney’s Soul, which is nominated for Best Animated Film, also bypassed a theatrical release, premiering on Disney+.

2020 was a “lost year” for theaters, and it’s still unclear what the new normal will be. In the future, it’s possible that only the largest blockbuster movies will make their way to theatrical release, and smaller awards fare films will bypass theaters entirely.

Regarding the future of the Oscars, senior media analyst at Comscore, Paul Dergarabedian, said, “The Oscars will always be a part of the glitz and glamor of Hollywood. The difference may come in the way that the ‘bump’ they provide is measured; whether in box office dollars, streaming views, video sales and rentals, or social media likes. The currency of whatever ‘bump’ the Oscars provide will likely never be the same.”

With the disruption of COVID-19, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences adjusted the rules for this year’s Academy Awards by allowing movies that premiered on streaming to compete for awards at tonight’s ceremony. While this was originally meant to be a one-time exception, it may be hard to go back now that streaming premieres have become a studio go-to. Some studios are also planning to experiment with simultaneous theater and streaming releases, like Disney has announced for Cruella and Black Widow.

The shift towards streaming releases for films that are not expected to be major blockbuster hits presents a major aspect of uncertainty for the future of the Academy Awards. As Variety noted, not a single Best Picture winner has ranked in the top 10 in the global box office since The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King in 2004. This illustrates the growing split between films that generate the most general audience interest and those that interest awards voters.

Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at Boxoffice.com, believes that we could see some big shifts in upcoming Academy Awards nominees in favor of blockbuster films. He said, “The voter base of the Academy is progressing from one generation to the next. New voices always supplant current and previous ones. We saw ‘Black Panther’ receive a Best Picture nomination just three years ago, and it’s a fair guess to say something like ‘The Dark Knight’ would be nominated if it were released today, given the changing dynamics and tastes of voters.”

While blockbuster films are likely to find success regardless of the rules impacting their eligibility for awards, Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian believes the fate of the indie film lies in the hands of the Academy. “If the rules that allow films that never play in theaters to qualify for Oscars remain, then the effect on the business will be profound and long-lasting.”

Do you plan to watch the Oscars tonight? Let us know in the comments below.

 

Post a Comment