Experts Predict 2021 Hurricane Season Will Have “Above Normal” Activity

If you’ve ever been to Walt Disney World in the summer, you know that the weather can be rather…temperamental.

It’s not uncommon to go from sun to a downpour and back to sun all in the span of 30 minutes. But, one thing that can halt Disney park operations is hurricanes and tropical storms. Last year, we faced an above average hurricane season, and analysts are starting to predict what the 2021 season could look like.

According to a report released by the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, we could be facing an above average hurricane season. They predict that there will be 17 named storms, including 8 hurricanes, with 4 of those being considered “major hurricanes.”

The report states that “We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean” with predictions that the overall Atlantic Basin season “will have above-normal activity.” 

Update: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has now released its predictions for this upcoming hurricane season. According to NOAA, they are predicting there will be “another above-normal Atlantic hurricane season.” Specifically, NOAA states that forecasters are predicting the following possibilities:

• a 60% chance of an above-normal season
• a 30% chance of a near-normal season
• a 10% chance of a below-normal season

NOAA does note, however, that they are not predicting to see the same historic level of storm activity that we saw in 2020.

In terms of the number of storms NOAA predicts we could see, they’ve shared their likely ranges:

• 13-20 named storms
• of which 6-10 could become hurricanes, including 3-5 of which could become major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5)

According to NOAA, they are providing these ranges with a 70% confidence.

NOAA shared that they have updated their statistics recently about hurricane predictions. Now, an “average” hurricane season is considered to be one that “produces 14 named storms, of which 7 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.”

While NOAA doesn’t expect this season to be as busy as last year, they are still urging people to get prepared. The FEMA Administrator said, “With hurricane season starting on June 1, now is the time to get ready and advance disaster resilience in our communities.”

Disney World is no stranger to hurricanes, having to close the parks temporarily a few times over the past two decades due to severe weather. The most recent closures were for Hurricane Matthew in 2016, Hurricane Irma in 2017, and Hurricane Dorian in 2019.

Hurricane season begins in June and lasts through the end of November, with the most activity usually occurring in August or September. We will continue to keep our eye out for more information about the hurricane season this year and bring you the latest updates.

Check Out All the Times Throughout History That Disney World and Disneyland Have Closed Down

Have you ever been to Disney World during severe weather? Let us know in the comments!

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