What Went “Wrong” With Disney’s New ‘Indiana Jones’ Movie? Analysts Chime In

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny — the 5th(!) film in the popular movie franchise — was released on June 30th, 2023. But has it been a true success?

The film has been out for just over 2 weeks as of July 17th, so it can be difficult to predict how it’ll be viewed years from now. But we do know just how the movie has done at the box office lately, and things may not be looking as good as some had hoped. So, what went “wrong” with this film? Let’s find out.

A Rough Opening

Back at the start of July, Variety noted that Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny “stumbled” with a $60 million domestic debut, even though that struggle did land it at the top spot in the domestic box office at the time. It added $70 million internationally to its total, bringing the opening weekend to $130 million globally.

Compare that to something like Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 — which opened with $118 million domestically (Box Office Mojo) — and you can see a big difference.

Variety admits that $60 million is a “decent amount of money for a tentpole that’s aimed at older audiences.” But still, that debut is worse than The Flash. Ultimately, however, it seems Indiana Jones‘ biggest problems come when it comes to budget.

Budget

Variety notes that the latest Indy movie was incredibly costly to make — costing $295 million before marketing. (That’s $100 million MORE than The Flash.) Forbes had estimated the budget between $250-$300 million. They report that “A budget of $250 million would place it among the 25 costliest, but a $300 million budget would place it among the top 10.”

According to Variety, it’ll take a “heroic feat” for the film to become profitable.

Box Office Mojo reports the film has made just over $145 million domestic, and $157 worldwide, getting it to a total of just over $300 million worldwide (as of the latest updates to this post). That means that the film may have crossed its expected cost of around $295 million, but only just.

Variety shares that some of the “bloated” movie budgets “releases reflect the tens of millions that were racked up from pandemic delays and enhanced COVID testing..” That should start to ease in the future but there are still big questions as to where Disney will save money — cutting back on special effects? Adjusting marketing?

And since major movies like this take years to develop and then produce and distribute, noticeable differences in terms of budgets and costs might not even really be seen until 2026 or beyond, according to Variety.

CNN notes that these big-budget films can also be particularly problematic in a “fragmented marketplace” like the one we have today with divisions between the box office, streaming, and more. But it’s “a formula that can’t be turned around overnight.”

It’s Reached the End

The latest Indy film didn’t even do as well (in terms of a domestic debut) as its franchise predecessor — Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. That film was released 15 years ago and earned $100 million domestically during its opening.

One possibility is that people are simply “done” with Indiana Jones movies. David A. Gross, who runs the movie consulting firm Franchise Entertainment Research, shared “This is a weak opening…Most action-adventure series finish by episode five and that’s happening here.” (Variety)

The New York Times shares that franchise sequels are part of the reason behind declining ticket sales at the box office. “Decades of being pumped for profits have left some of these properties with threadbare tires.”

Holding Out for July Releases

Another factor at play could be the draw of other upcoming releases. While Indiana Jones came out at the end of June, July has brought or will soon bring new films to the market including Mission: Impossible 7, Oppenheimer, and Barbie. 

Franchise Entertainment Research’s Gross shared, “Audiences are ready for the next big thing…And these movies look like they are going to be it.”

It’s possible that some folks looked at upcoming releases and figured they’d rather hold their cash to see some of the later summer films than opt for Indy.

Ratings

Another factor at play could be ratings. While the film has received an 88% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes, it only has a 68% on the Tomatometer. That’s actually lower than the Tomatometer for Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Crystal Skull got 77%), but interestingly the new movie ranks much HIGHER in terms of audience score (Crystal Skull is at 53%). Critics have been a bit more harsh on the film, which could be impacting some individuals’ desire to see it.

In fact, Forbes points out, “The fifth Indiana Jones has the lowest combined Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic scores of the entire franchise.”

We’ve certainly seen how bad ratings can impact movies in the past, and that could be affecting things here again.

The Streaming Problem

Raised as an issue with Elemental and Pixar films as well, BBC notes that streaming could also be a problem with the release of the latest Indiana Jones movie.

As they point out, with the other Indiana Jones movies already available via streaming at the touch of a button, why buy tickets to see this version? And with lots of talent appearing in hit streaming shows, “films are left looking like the poor relation.”

CNN seems to echo this by noting that consumers have “grown increasingly accustomed to watching movies at home, which has combined with the lingering effects of the Covid pandemic to result in major disappointments at the box office.”

International Struggles

Another thing to consider is the international box office. Joff Bock, an analyst with Exhibitor Relations, told Variety, “Anything Disney threw out in 2019 made $1 billion…Now, it’s more difficult than ever to release a film worldwide. The international landscape has changed. It’s not close to back.”

It’s Not Just Disney

But it’s not just Disney seeing struggles in theaters. The Flash has made a bit more than $263 million worldwide according to Box Office Mojo. And Mission: Impossible 7 hasn’t had the most spectacular opening — making $56.2 million domestically on its 3-day opening weekend (coming in below expectations) and a total of around $235 million so far per Box Office Mojo.

According to CNN’s Brian Lowry, the summer of 2023 will be remembered as a “cruel summer.” Aside from the twin strikes, the box office as a whole has seen some major disappointments.

The New York Times reports that domestic ticket sales are “down about 20 percent from the same period in 2019, the last year before the pandemic severely disrupted moviegoing.”

As some indicated above, the struggles may be far from over, particularly when it comes to films with bigger budgets. Even if budgets are slashed overnight (just as Disney is cutting tons from its spending), the effects of that might not be felt for years to come as existing projects may not be able to be impacted by any changes.

It will be interesting to see whether the upcoming films for the summer and Disney’s own Haunted Mansion film will fare differently in theaters. While Elemental has struggled, it has seen some improvements recently in terms of box office sales.

We’ll keep an eye out for more news and let you know what we find. Stay tuned for all the latest updates.

Have you seen the latest Indiana Jones movie? Why or why not? What did you think of it? Tell us in the comments!

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